TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Hornets: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,127
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,935

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,127 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Over49c2,123$1,043 inLost-$1,042.913,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under51c1,313$670 inWon+$643.368,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under69c726.72$500 inWon+$226.7227158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over31c570.63$177 inLost-$177.233,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c517.1$264 inWon+$253.383,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dc1…36bbbacked Under71c140.85$100 inWon+$40.857848.7%38 W · 40 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Over29c140.85$41 inLost-$40.851,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over32c124.28$40 inLost-$40.333,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over51c114.52$59 inLost-$58.9540344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under53c100$53 inWon+$4743246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Under59c84.75$50 inWon+$34.7523246.1%107 W · 125 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over41c84.75$35 inLost-$34.753,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Under48c84.52$41 inWon+$43.952,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Under59c76.05$45 inWon+$31.0576054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c75.99$35 inWon+$40.665,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under51c62$32 inWon+$30.3839055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over41c60.85$25 inLost-$24.951,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over47c50$24 inLost-$23.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbf…0758backed Over45c34.22$15 inLost-$15.3939047.7%186 W · 204 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd6…16abbacked Under67c30$20 inWon+$9.910558.1%61 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under49c27$13 inWon+$13.7788057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf73e…43f1backed Over51c27$14 inLost-$13.7716052.5%84 W · 76 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c8…5945backed Over44c22.96$10 inLost-$10.1837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f29…0a3cbacked Under50c20$10 inWon+$102100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+63.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x569e…2550backed Under67c17.91$12 inWon+$5.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x758a…d991backed Under68c15.65$11 inWon+$5.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+28.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.