NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe71ecb3b98f051f3fd9905ee58bbb73e0ff35721a8db88eec70f7a6ee5e2b41a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lightningof Lightning, Utah
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89c2…f627backed Utah | 60c | 10,700$6,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,420 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Lightning | 38c | 6,767$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,195.52 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Utah | 62c | 4,630$2,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,870.6 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20d6…3856backed Lightning | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 268 | 49.6%133 W · 135 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Utah | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Utah | 61c | 1,907$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.51 | 684 | 49.9%341 W · 343 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Utah | 62c | 1,279$793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.97 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f7…0a57backed Lightning | 39c | 1,020$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Lightning | 37c | 926.76$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.56 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Lightning | 39c | 902.02$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.81 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Utah | 55c | 707.89$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.69 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Lightning | 45c | 647.42$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…919cbacked Lightning | 38c | 521.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Utah | 61c | 499.94$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.96 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Utah | 62c | 487$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.94 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…68ecbacked Utah | 64c | 468.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Utah | 63c | 445.84$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b61…aa79backed Utah | 61c | 410$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Utah | 63c | 380.95$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 39c | 328.21$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lightning | 47c | 327.82$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.87 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd948…b07fbacked Utah | 61c | 320$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc830…fea4backed Utah | 61c | 290$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Utah | 63c | 240$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Lightning | 35c | 229$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 37c | 225$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.75 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Utah | 61c | 192.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Utah | 53c | 183$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Utah | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Lightning | 31c | 150$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Lightning | 63c | 110$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Utah | 61c | 108.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lightning | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Utah | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Utah | 62c | 85.34$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 317 | 53.3%169 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Utah | 65c | 85$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Utah | 62c | 82.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Lightning | 38c | 71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…af43backed Lightning | 38c | 69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Lightning | 38c | 64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Lightning | 41c | 61.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…0dd0backed Lightning | 38c | 59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Lightning | 39c | 58.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.97 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Lightning | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8c…2157backed Utah | 62c | 46.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Lightning | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Utah | 62c | 35.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Utah | 63c | 33.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Lightning | 39c | 32.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Utah | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Lightning | 39c | 30.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Utah | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed Utah | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…8610backed Utah | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34b2…cec2backed Utah | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Utah | 62c | 22.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaa…3ea5backed Utah | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Utah | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb2…5a2dbacked Utah | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Utah | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5192backed Utah | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Utah | 62c | 19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x862d…2632backed Utah | 62c | 16.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Utah vs. LightningLightning won
- Utah vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.