NBA · resolved market

Spread: Heat (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16fd373258f889c6dec9787915614e69c93bc5e7458704967088f6921a4bb70a

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Hawksof Heat, Hawks
Resolved: Feb 4, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $88,923
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $96,925

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,923 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Heat	49c	54,592$26,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26,750.13	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbca…b7b7backed Hawks	51c	12,798$6,527 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,271.02	250	49.2%123 W · 127 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Hawks	51c	11,806$6,021 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,784.88	702	46.4%326 W · 376 L	-20.4wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Hawks	51c	10,359$5,283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,075.82	334	47.9%160 W · 174 L	-6.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…0924backed Hawks	51c	8,800$4,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,312	240	45.4%109 W · 131 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Heat	49c	7,766$3,803 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,803.16	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Hawks	51c	7,196$3,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,526.08	59	45.8%27 W · 32 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Hawks	51c	6,290$3,208 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,082.2	244	50%122 W · 122 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc37…2f65backed Hawks	51c	5,686$2,900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,786.27	416	49.8%207 W · 209 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Heat	49c	5,496$2,693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,693	123	41.5%51 W · 72 L	-8.6wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Hawks	51c	2,965$1,512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,452.85	2,091	47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L	-56.6wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x410a…2643backed Hawks	51c	2,500$1,275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,225	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	45cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat	49c	2,064$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.42	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Heat	49c	2,000$980 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$980	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Heat	50c	1,500$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.08	1,332	51.2%682 W · 650 L	+7.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Hawks	50c	1,500$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$750	1,139	48.3%550 W · 589 L	+3.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Hawks	51c	1,484$757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$727.29	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1041…f452backed Hawks	51c	1,431$730 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$701.37	269	49.1%132 W · 137 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Hawks	50c	976$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488	236	44.1%104 W · 132 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb442…bed7backed Heat	48c	799.15$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385	126	52.4%66 W · 60 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Hawks	51c	784.31$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.31	485	46.4%225 W · 260 L	-14.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Heat	42c	631.69$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.85	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…68ecbacked Hawks	51c	588.24$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.24	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-2.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Heat	49c	380.97$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.68	530	43.8%232 W · 298 L	-25.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Hawks	49c	352.94$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	646	51.7%334 W · 312 L	-14.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks	71c	302.4$215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.7	2,630	36.7%966 W · 1,664 L	-119.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd5a…a71cbacked Hawks	75c	300$225 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	50	60%30 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f6…5ac8backed Heat	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	86	45.3%39 W · 47 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Hawks	51c	200.41$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.2	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Hawks	51c	196.08$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	364	50.8%185 W · 179 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Hawks	52c	196$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.64	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks	54c	139.5$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.57	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Heat	49c	102$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Hawks	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Hawks	51c	96.18$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.13	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Heat	48c	88$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.24	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fec…871cbacked Heat	29c	83.17$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	38	44.7%17 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Heat	49c	81.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	164	43.9%72 W · 92 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Heat	49c	81.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	150	40%60 W · 90 L	-14.1wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Heat	50c	81.4$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	158	46.8%74 W · 84 L	-4.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Heat	50c	70$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.65	539	45.3%244 W · 295 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Heat	49c	66.19$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.67	251	43%108 W · 143 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6238…0523backed Heat	50c	64.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	158	49.4%78 W · 80 L	-4.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Hawks	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	100	46%46 W · 54 L	-5.9wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Heat	50c	58.44$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.22	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8c1…8c6bbacked Heat	50c	57.84$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.92	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Hawks	77c	50.6$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.66	190	50.5%96 W · 94 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Heat	54c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	624	50%312 W · 312 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8025…c036backed Heat	58c	49$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.42	32	43.8%14 W · 18 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea81…ef51backed Heat	50c	43.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.83	55	50.9%28 W · 27 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	57cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Heat	50c	39.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	143	52.4%75 W · 68 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f90…cc98backed Hawks	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf628…ba6fbacked Heat	46c	34.27$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	84	40.5%34 W · 50 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks	54c	34.27$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.76	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Hawks	62c	33.64$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.75	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks	50c	31.06$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.53	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Heat	50c	28.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.24	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Heat	49c	20.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.29	1,018	51.6%525 W · 493 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7337…0cd1backed Heat	50c	20.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	35	51.4%18 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2695…832abacked Hawks	77c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.6	25	80%20 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.10per pick	70cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Heat (-1.5)this page
Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Hawks vs. HeatHawks won
Hawks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHawks won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Spread: Heat (-3.5)Hawks won
Spread: Heat (-4.5)Hawks won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Heat (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event