NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef7a0d486ac45c062da182e7f145a59b340bc77f810b7a3b89855be97b584251
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,955
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,955 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf154…27e3backed Over | 49c | 4,707$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.63 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 54c | 2,689$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,441.49 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 53c | 2,669$1,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,414.53 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 2,410$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 2,377$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,264.63 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 53c | 2,300$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Under | 54c | 2,300$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242 | 346 | 54%187 W · 159 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 1,038$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.14 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 54c | 917.99$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.71 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 64c | 766.84$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.78 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 757$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 741.36$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.98 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 4c | 520.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 54c | 512$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.5 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 3c | 449.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 52c | 416$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 47c | 399.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.99 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 520 | 52.3%272 W · 248 L | +31.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…5a90backed Under | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 47c | 155.48$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 37c | 128.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 47c | 127.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 47c | 124.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Over | 48c | 104.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 432 | 46.1%199 W · 233 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…fcfabacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 99.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 63c | 93.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 60c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Under | 53c | 80.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d15…2d65backed Under | 73c | 68.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -4.4wins | -0.26per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…8a63backed Under | 53c | 55.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa952…14a5backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cc…535abacked Under | 57c | 45.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Over | 45c | 45.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 57c | 45.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 44.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 53c | 42.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 59c | 41.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 53c | 39.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 33c | 38.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc257…358ebacked Under | 59c | 35.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 404 | 46.8%189 W · 215 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 46c | 32.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…6575backed Under | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Over | 48c | 26.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…0194backed Under | 73c | 25.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…7056backed Under | 48c | 21.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Under | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Over | 52c | 19.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. HeatHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.