TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,004

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,955 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf154…27e3backed Over49c4,707$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,406.639051.1%46 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under54c2,689$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.492,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Under53c2,669$1,415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,414.5329055.5%161 W · 129 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c2,410$1,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.439,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over47c2,377$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,264.634,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Under53c2,300$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2191,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under54c2,300$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,24234654%187 W · 159 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over47c1,038$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.145,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Under54c917.99$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7180653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under64c766.84$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.783,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over36c757$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.348,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over52c741.36$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.982,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Under4c520.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8329810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under54c512$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.51,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Under3c449.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.535326.6%94 W · 259 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+31%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over52c416$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.681,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over47c399.99$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.9980744.1%356 W · 451 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Over40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12052052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fee…5a90backed Under60c200$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206264.5%40 W · 22 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over47c155.48$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.282,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Over37c128.2$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.413,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over47c127.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.773,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Over47c124.15$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6166646.8%312 W · 354 L-29.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over48c104.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4191148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd637…be9abacked Under50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5016052.5%84 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Over36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6443246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65e9…fcfabacked Under52c100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5240%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over48c99.66$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.571,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under63c93.7$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.031,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d14…1eb4backed Under60c84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5037352%194 W · 179 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Under53c80.69$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7731155%171 W · 140 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under54c70$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.849351.7%255 W · 238 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d15…2d65backed Under73c68.2$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.791747.1%8 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick73cpaid-35.9%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf54b…8a63backed Under53c55.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1611444.7%51 W · 63 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa952…14a5backed Under49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.5wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-43.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Under21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.523047.4%109 W · 121 L+19.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6cc…535abacked Under57c45.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.311250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…06c5backed Over45c45.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.117750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Under57c45.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0457657.8%333 W · 243 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under53c44.84$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.863,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under53c42.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6295047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under48c41.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under59c41.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.483,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under53c39.1$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.871,00351%512 W · 491 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over33c38.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.81,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Under59c35.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6740446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b54…ea13backed Under60c35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2137959.4%225 W · 154 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Over40c35$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211,04549%512 W · 533 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Over46c32.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4333653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1bd…5e2dbacked Under51c29.41$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb253…6575backed Under76c26.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203275%24 W · 8 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+23.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b5b…6e14backed Over48c26.04$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.545853.4%31 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfebc…0194backed Under73c25.49$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over41c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7552240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe82…7056backed Under48c21.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.554351.2%22 W · 21 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…a3f8backed Under54c21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.341,01851.6%525 W · 493 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Over52c19.37$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.325143%108 W · 143 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.