NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40ab1c7f3ffbce77e20b6535bd398ea14bec569b65e3e7dfaf8ea9598bb6dcd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,663
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,763
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,663 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 3,255$1,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.82 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 55c | 2,968$1,632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.4 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 2,313$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,235.23 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Over | 50c | 2,030$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 52c | 1,957$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.02 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Under | 15c | 736.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 721.28$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.35 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 690.89$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Under | 50c | 553$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.91 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 52c | 504.4$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.29 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 48c | 498.88$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.42 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 3c | 477.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 386.35$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.33 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 44c | 364.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.03 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 57c | 328.57$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.39 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 56c | 303.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 45c | 268.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.47 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 235$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.1 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Over | 53c | 224$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.28 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 54c | 147.39$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Under | 55c | 65.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 50c | 63.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 48c | 61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed4…620ebacked Over | 53c | 58.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 311 | 55%171 W · 140 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 57.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Under | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked Under | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…c356backed Over | 48c | 30.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 412 | 51%210 W · 202 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Under | 47c | 30.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…5b75backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…6575backed Under | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Under | 54c | 21.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7337…0cd1backed Under | 51c | 20.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…c920backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. HeatHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.