NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76fb1ddb2130dcb1d118d3c2c513b33e78eba4647ae28a69b9c498b2597b1f08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3707…bcafbacked Heat | 49c | 7,211$3,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,533.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x822d…334cbacked Hawks | 51c | 3,329$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5588…bf26backed Hawks | 51c | 3,137$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,537.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9623…9604backed Hawks | 51c | 1,544$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 49cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab1…e406backed Heat | 49c | 799$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 53c | 709.27$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Heat | 46c | 527$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.42 | 401 | 46.9%188 W · 213 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Heat | 53c | 187.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Hawks | 55c | 145.62$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.03 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Hawks | 54c | 101.47$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.47 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks | 57c | 100.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Heat | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Heat | 48c | 79.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…0bfabacked Hawks | 51c | 69.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 131 | 42.7%56 W · 75 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Heat | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Hawks | 51c | 52.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Heat | 43c | 51.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Heat | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Heat | 46c | 50.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…22b8backed Heat | 52c | 50.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Hawks | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Heat | 51c | 49.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Hawks | 47c | 48.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 50c | 45.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfedd…32c4backed Hawks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Heat | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -16.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe886…ba86backed Heat | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Heat | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. HeatHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.