TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over49c8,000$3,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,079.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a43…565fbacked Under51c7,841$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,9995945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77fe…551dbacked Under52c5,618$2,916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,91624450%122 W · 122 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over49c5,607$2,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.419,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Over48c3,854$1,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00438251%195 W · 187 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Under52c3,846$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00033447.9%160 W · 174 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Under50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5009741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Over51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7826637.2%99 W · 167 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under57c1,153$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.438,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Under2c1,010$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.229810.4%31 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+230.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over48c892$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.883,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa966…208bbacked Under48c634.76$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.1417349.1%85 W · 88 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under50c526.54$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.273,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over45c519.44$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.252,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over43c339.08$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.963,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49a1…41cbbacked Over67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.51977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick66cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over48c284.34$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.691,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed Over51c239.65$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.4354351.6%280 W · 263 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over30c237.91$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.543,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Over51c226.25$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.11,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c72…78edbacked Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004346.5%20 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7c…bfd7backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf60…f8d5backed Under51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009844.9%44 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x11f2…a7a0backed Over43c187.74$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.4219050.5%96 W · 94 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1936453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2997…6c34backed Over55c178.54$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.341586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick68cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over47c168.33$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3717547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under36c122.22$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8c…686fbacked Under16c108$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.582449.4%23 W · 221 L-27.5wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-72.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Over49c86.29$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.0153149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a76…b30fbacked Over50c85.39$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3921642.1%91 W · 125 L-15.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under49c78.43$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4395047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Over51c78.43$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.438158%47 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under26c61$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.641,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over45c59$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.452,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Under51c58.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010046%46 W · 54 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over49c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe88b…fa5abacked Under58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2943246.1%199 W · 233 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…f63dbacked Under52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe113…375dbacked Under53c47.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252065%13 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x309a…f474backed Over53c41.48$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.511741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Over50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209050%45 W · 45 L-4.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc5…d36ebacked Over50c38$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195848.3%28 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x243c…9ae0backed Over48c37.21$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3538347%180 W · 203 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d4…d0eabacked Over50c35.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.743148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb19…122ebacked Under54c34.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.55119.1%1 W · 10 L-3.5wins-0.32per pick41cpaid-82.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x995e…223dbacked Under51c33.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over49c33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.832,09147.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L-56.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c6…234cbacked Under49c32.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under52c30.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.953,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x198c…6a94backed Under50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76e7…1872backed Under59c29.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.242142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43af…da96backed Under57c28.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64850%24 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8694…441cbacked Under52c22.88$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under58c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0227463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x69b7…ae1dbacked Over74c18.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.899450%47 W · 47 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-15.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.