NBA · resolved market
Spread: Heat (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8a25b76f8d34671268cf34afe778b9be6c5a1aa1ce75204a25b8e1098c65ae8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawksof Heat, Hawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Hawks | 52c | 10,065$5,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,817.51 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Heat | 48c | 6,238$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,994.24 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Hawks | 52c | 4,143$2,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,976.56 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…551dbacked Heat | 48c | 3,147$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Heat | 40c | 2,976$1,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.79 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Heat | 47c | 2,902$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,364 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Heat | 48c | 2,702$1,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,289.4 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawks | 52c | 2,591$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.84 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hawks | 57c | 1,808$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Heat | 48c | 1,764$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.85 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Heat | 47c | 1,277$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Hawks | 52c | 1,143$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.22 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Heat | 48c | 1,142$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.24 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Hawks | 56c | 928.49$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.53 | 182 | 35.7%65 W · 117 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Hawks | 52c | 849.58$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.8 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c7…4138backed Hawks | 52c | 800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Hawks | 54c | 620.35$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.14 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Heat | 42c | 616.19$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.64 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8415…dfe1backed Hawks | 53c | 612.98$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.1 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Heat | 46c | 562.38$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.1 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…7909backed Heat | 48c | 484.69$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.98 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Heat | 48c | 440$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…c873backed Heat | 46c | 421.6$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 627 | 44.5%279 W · 348 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Heat | 47c | 420$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…394cbacked Heat | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…121dbacked Heat | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 315 | 51.7%163 W · 152 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Hawks | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…1056backed Hawks | 53c | 387$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce0…7058backed Heat | 48c | 387$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.76 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Hawks | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Heat | 36c | 249.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Heat | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Heat | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Hawks | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Hawks | 60c | 134.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53aa…07fcbacked Heat | 48c | 129.23$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.03 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Heat | 47c | 115.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Hawks | 55c | 113$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Heat | 48c | 105$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Heat | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204e…55eabacked Heat | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Heat | 45c | 92.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Hawks | 59c | 72$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95be…9968backed Hawks | 53c | 53.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.18 | 335 | 52.8%177 W · 158 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Heat | 38c | 52.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Hawks | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Heat | 40c | 47.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Hawks | 58c | 47.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Hawks | 63c | 46.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Hawks | 80c | 39.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Heat | 41c | 35.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Heat | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Heat | 48c | 29.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Heat | 47c | 28.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Heat | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Heat | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5b…6e14backed Hawks | 59c | 21.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. HeatHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.