NBA · resolved market
Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c97d95bcd38d8298531d857780d0752b9b499d5bd8602a37ef40ebc24e4fa29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 9,831$4,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,340.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3a…020bbacked Under | 54c | 7,462$4,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,029.39 | 290 | 55.5%161 W · 129 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 2c | 4,995$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,895.1 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 55c | 4,769$2,623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,622.89 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 1c | 3,197$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,149.79 | 259 | 54.4%141 W · 118 L | +34.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc2…30a8backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 42c | 1,525$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.7 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked Over | 9c | 1,431$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.37 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Over | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.77 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 1,017$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.57 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 3c | 939.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Under | 66c | 911.55$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 43c | 882.19$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.28 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 857$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.76 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 34c | 792.38$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.65 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 68c | 535.13$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.89 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Under | 75c | 404$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 42c | 352.89$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.73 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 48c | 290.65$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.1 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Over | 39c | 213.59$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.49 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Under | 60c | 129.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ab…c3acbacked Under | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Under | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | +19.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e11…644abacked Under | 64c | 77.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Under | 50c | 77.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f6…66e2backed Under | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Over | 45c | 74.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e6…5a30backed Under | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Over | 50c | 50.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e3…ac06backed Over | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Over | 38c | 33.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 508 | 41.7%212 W · 296 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 29.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 49c | 27.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Under | 50c | 27.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 241.5this page
- Andrew Wiggins: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Andrew Wiggins: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- CJ McCollum: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Davion Mitchell: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Hawks vs. HeatHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: 1H MoneylineHawks won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 235.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 236.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 237.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 238.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 239.5Over won
- Hawks vs. Heat: O/U 240.5Over won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Norman Powell: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Norman Powell: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Norman Powell: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Heat (-1.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-3.5)Hawks won
- Spread: Heat (-4.5)Hawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.