F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the United States Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924147f074d0757971db47a8147a2094580eddad20c49e730b5d5b3a46749199
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa21e…d3a8backed No | 55c | 5,743$3,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 45c | 3,339$1,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.64 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 4c | 1,392$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed1…d134backed Yes | 26c | 1,143$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 1,058$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.97 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 44c | 1,013$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.95 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 74c | 854.8$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.25 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 8c | 415.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…e12fbacked No | 56c | 400$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…8753backed No | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…8a36backed Yes | 26c | 319$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa463…1018backed Yes | 33c | 302.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200a…d498backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 26c | 262.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 53c | 232.98$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa73c…97fcbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…c23cbacked Yes | 28c | 205.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Yes | 23c | 196.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Yes | 38c | 190.97$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…0bafbacked Yes | 26c | 188.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf5…40e4backed Yes | 28c | 178.66$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f61…56ebbacked No | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 37c | 169.66$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 65c | 153.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 31c | 146.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…257dbacked No | 73c | 139.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 22c | 133.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9283…4fc9backed Yes | 29c | 119.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 21c | 108.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3c…933cbacked Yes | 33c | 106.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cce…44b9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0615…5c47backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 61c | 95.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed No | 77c | 91.95$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…2f6bbacked Yes | 33c | 90$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…e926backed Yes | 33c | 81.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…b179backed Yes | 39c | 76.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…78d9backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7415…fae8backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…605dbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…287cbacked Yes | 29c | 62.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…0397backed Yes | 28c | 55.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x892d…f806backed Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…fcdbbacked Yes | 41c | 51.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…c05cbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7641…0089backed No | 64c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…d616backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked No | 58c | 39.03$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf634…3c9ebacked Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 51c | 35.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf91…f15ebacked No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…1fb2backed Yes | 44c | 34.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 54c | 31.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…e850backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…744bbacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e2c…4867backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be7…e172backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the United States Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the United States Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will George Russell win the United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the United States Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the United States Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.