Earnings · resolved market
Will Fedex (FDX) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f84778f8e5251b4d1b96583923fcc501afd7d7f21a63da633ddf9ff8373a461
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 74c | 2,429$1,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.01 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 4c | 1,750$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 26c | 681.35$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 77c | 618.24$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.38 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 48c | 555$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4a…104fbacked No | 25c | 450.99$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…3829backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 74c | 363.94$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.91 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…5ee1backed Yes | 55c | 341$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +83%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60af…10cfbacked Yes | 59c | 338.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 35c | 329.97$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.19 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 50c | 303.42$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd9…647bbacked No | 46c | 288.74$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked No | 35c | 285.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…824cbacked Yes | 70c | 275.54$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 47c | 222.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.8 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 11c | 209.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 54c | 204.63$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 22c | 202.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 50c | 201.89$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 35c | 201$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.86 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 54c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0507…40b8backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f8…8d75backed No | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d36…03b3backed No | 36c | 169.92$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…5fc5backed No | 37c | 147.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 60c | 144.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…bb1bbacked Yes | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe330…1674backed Yes | 76c | 131.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…02c3backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac4…53c9backed No | 46c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes | 51c | 102.94$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x832b…5c91backed No | 49c | 102.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1435…8c03backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc469…51ffbacked No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked No | 49c | 97.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 97.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 332 | 25%83 W · 249 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…f00abacked Yes | 65c | 92.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 31c | 91.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Yes | 74c | 79.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 62c | 76.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 73c | 73.77$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7da…b60cbacked Yes | 77c | 73.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 66c | 68.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Yes | 77c | 65.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c16…9a13backed No | 40c | 62.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked No | 22c | 59.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 22c | 59.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 24c | 54.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed No | 40c | 53.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd374…5544backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be2…f72abacked No | 38c | 52.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…3917backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed Yes | 56c | 51.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…2dc9backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52af…b30bbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 28c | 49.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 50c | 40.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4352…91b6backed Yes | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9915…3704backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x277a…86cfbacked Yes | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb56…7d31backed Yes | 55c | 33.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff1…82dfbacked Yes | 80c | 32.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Yes | 66c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…2c38backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…4940backed Yes | 60c | 28.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce09…e006backed Yes | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…380fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…4e1ebacked Yes | 78c | 26.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa150…416abacked Yes | 58c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…fcb0backed Yes | 76c | 21.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c18…9ceabacked Yes | 74c | 16.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…f023backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.