Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Clinton's remarks not air?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3036e0577fbfb40eb62300c680556c95e65936bdc6a029846e471776424d2661
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,352 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca41…3af9backed No | 0c | 8,210$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…89e0backed No | 1c | 6,545$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd4…c0febacked No | 1c | 5,388$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…3570backed No | 1c | 4,856$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed No | 0c | 3,187$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9995…d0d3backed No | 4c | 2,960$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.01 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 16c | 1,961$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked No | 29c | 1,149$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…b370backed No | 1c | 980.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked No | 4c | 902.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes | 71c | 868$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…bb0fbacked No | 1c | 765.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed No | 3c | 725.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 4c | 566.26$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…ca45backed No | 22c | 490.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…9019backed No | 6c | 466$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb69…4064backed No | 7c | 412.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd09e…e177backed No | 9c | 278.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 258$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…cd52backed Yes | 71c | 181$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 79c | 140$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…1578backed No | 11c | 135$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Clinton's remarks not air?this page
- Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Daughter" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Donor" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Dress" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Epstein" or "Island" 10+ times during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Fifth" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Israel" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Mar-a-Lago" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Massage" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Monica" or "Lewinsky" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Pam" or "Bondi" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "President" or "Trump" 3+ times during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Prince" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Secretary" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Wedding" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "White House" during his Epstein testimony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.