Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc397c55fcb7c494d7671f79b45b5e31e08ed08d959e0b5a5b181bf06bd74a82b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,404 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2ca…04f5backed Yes | 1c | 5,160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…a013backed Yes | 1c | 4,705$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 13c | 3,990$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.08 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c6…a2fabacked Yes | 1c | 1,921$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 67c | 943$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…c83bbacked Yes | 33c | 938$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…b443backed Yes | 11c | 903.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 2c | 781.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…841fbacked Yes | 7c | 764.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…1c96backed Yes | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…f6a5backed Yes | 11c | 535.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…d355backed Yes | 11c | 439.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…9cdfbacked Yes | 4c | 392.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 66c | 290$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0a…b015backed Yes | 11c | 244.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x616a…3d6ebacked Yes | 7c | 204.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 70c | 140.43$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 70c | 134.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ad…bdd7backed Yes | 12c | 130.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 17c | 120.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e5…3570backed Yes | 16c | 92.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…10babacked Yes | 24c | 83.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 68.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a44…0196backed Yes | 29c | 51.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc755…a595backed No | 70c | 32.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2f…d8f8backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?this page
- Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Daughter" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Donor" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Dress" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Epstein" or "Island" 10+ times during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Fifth" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Israel" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Mar-a-Lago" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Massage" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Monica" or "Lewinsky" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Pam" or "Bondi" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "President" or "Trump" 3+ times during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Prince" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Secretary" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Wedding" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "White House" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton's remarks not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.