Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Clinton say "Massage" during his Epstein testimony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe154a6aa273f2518e47e3f28eb032b7a91e6b4543ab7e5c1aed378f276efce5c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,085 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bd1…cfb4backed Yes | 51c | 4,175$2,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,126 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9b…f5afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,212$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 34c | 436$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 25c | 400$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 25c | 400$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1baa…6eb3backed No | 15c | 391.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +226.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed No | 13c | 305$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…f8dcbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 22c | 180$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 16c | 155$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 12cpaid | +78%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 72c | 34.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Clinton say "Massage" during his Epstein testimony?this page
- Will Bill Clinton say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Daughter" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Donor" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Dress" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Epstein" or "Island" 10+ times during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Fifth" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Hillary" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Israel" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Mar-a-Lago" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Monica" or "Lewinsky" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Pam" or "Bondi" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Plane" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "President" or "Trump" 3+ times during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Prince" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Secretary" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "Wedding" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton say "White House" during his Epstein testimony?No won
- Will Bill Clinton's remarks not air?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.