Music · resolved market
Will Underneath the Tree - Kelly Clarkson be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe11ef33ee805cb8ee50b2aba7f91488132fb2cc8911b5addfa39c529653f2142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,736
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,736 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 10,980$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 42c | 937.5$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.75 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.39per pick | 40cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 58c | 750$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…dcc3backed No | 30c | 344.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 58c | 187.5$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 10c | 124.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…34aabacked No | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Underneath the Tree - Kelly Clarkson be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?this page
- Will A Holly Jolly Christmas - Burl Ives be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?No won
- Will Feliz Navidad - José Feliciano be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?No won
- Will It's Beginning To Look A Lot Like Christmas - Michael Bublé be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?No won
- Will It's The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year - Andy Williams be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow! - Dean Martin be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Sleigh Ride - The Ronettes be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.