Music · resolved market
Will Swag II first-week album sales be under 75000?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x80562bc122c2d5291eaad62436dbba04dfee8da253dc07783c59667ba1d07137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 66c | 5,540$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.22 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…1d80backed Yes | 10c | 2,811$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 46c | 1,118$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 65c | 754.26$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.12 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 616.41$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.54 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 7c | 470$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…2657backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab16…cff0backed No | 66c | 151.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 67c | 148.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…2725backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 21c | 78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 45c | 77.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 48c | 71.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…d1bdbacked Yes | 52c | 62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 39c | 53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…4602backed No | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 45c | 45.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 45c | 38.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Swag II first-week album sales be under 75000?this page
- Will Swag II first-week album sales be 175000 or more?No won
- Will Swag II first-week album sales be between 100000 and 125000?No won
- Will Swag II first-week album sales be between 125000 and 150000?No won
- Will Swag II first-week album sales be between 150000 and 175000?No won
- Will Swag II first-week album sales be between 75000 and 100000?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.