Music · resolved market
Will a Sabrina Carpenter song reach #1 again this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b62b9d973da7c7a34dfe3b66664d1ffc56105becaa0ab6afcd2a8ab7211ea21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1568…c958backed Yes | 35c | 1,422$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 79c | 912.03$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.34 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 21c | 633.03$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.85 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 30c | 407.92$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.94 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 61c | 345.15$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.75 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 328.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 31c | 322.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cc…56c3backed No | 66c | 293.74$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 25c | 273.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 217.6$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.97 | 122 | 34.4%42 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 34c | 194.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…33a7backed No | 66c | 182.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 67c | 153.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa23…03e2backed Yes | 14c | 145.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 143.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 41c | 133.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 70c | 125$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 30c | 124.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8c…3a74backed Yes | 16c | 105.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 82.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0713…2f2cbacked Yes | 40c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 27c | 77.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…3561backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655d…abfebacked Yes | 43c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ff…f475backed No | 67c | 35.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…171ebacked Yes | 50c | 31.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6140…08b0backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.