Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Homeless" or "Homelessness" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13a53b7145ed1a9ff15bdd96d9e8815cbd22dfdaba4c9f39731f26ce6d4c234c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 43c | 130.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 54c | 114$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 57c | 111$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 103$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 57c | 87.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.43 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 46c | 74.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 45c | 72.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 44c | 65.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…2cdbbacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 54cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5e…af8dbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee32…9733backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Homeless" or "Homelessness" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Dream" 3+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "ICE" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Jewish" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 12+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Pizza" or "Hamburger" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Thousand / Million / Billion" 8+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" 5+ times during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on September 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.