Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Tomahawk" or "Patriot" during announcement today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x802d3bc6b7876051b0ceb061fa33bf428996f415a03a148848bf298930adc123
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 80c | 420$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 20c | 420$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed No | 47c | 213.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 49c | 160.02$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 63c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 45c | 118$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 79c | 91.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 57c | 79$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 79c | 64.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9162…bf46backed No | 65c | 47.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec0f…3bbabacked Yes | 77c | 36.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Tomahawk" or "Patriot" during announcement today?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" or "President Xi" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left" 3+ times during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Putin" during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 7+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during announcement today?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.