TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during announcement today?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,738 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes4c2,500$95 inLost-$95450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+54.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9353…4229backed Yes7c1,429$100 inLost-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-45.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a4a…14d2backed Yes7c1,031$69 inLost-$69425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed Yes7c999.5$72 inLost-$71.713330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-35.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1d…e3c3backed Yes6c798.88$50 inLost-$501612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-72.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d76…656dbacked Yes12c630.1$74 inLost-$74.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde35…0239backed Yes7c502.16$35 inLost-$35.15520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-63.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5a…4b33backed Yes12c459.56$55 inLost-$54.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9a28…f71abacked Yes8c265.28$22 inLost-$2280%0 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.