Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during announcement today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1852002a93c1ade20d3a0664a196c4bad733ede9cc52d2e248788bf92cbbc329
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe367…abd9backed No | 67c | 472.96$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed Yes | 62c | 399.98$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.45per pick | 58cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 25c | 366.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 63c | 300$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 37c | 290$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…89bfbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.4 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Yes | 67c | 149.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 34c | 138.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.56 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…c165backed No | 37c | 136.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 55c | 130$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d76…656dbacked Yes | 62c | 120.75$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 41c | 103.06$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 43c | 95.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed No | 56c | 35.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…f22abacked Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f86…4798backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…7c5cbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during announcement today?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" or "President Xi" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left" 3+ times during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Putin" during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 7+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Tomahawk" or "Patriot" during announcement today?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.