Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Thank you" 7+ times during announcement today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd483445ddefb1bb8ea7109c7e7d9b7bcfb447bdfff3254fc4ec1e2dabd83955f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,890
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,890 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22f9…a417backed No | 68c | 1,740$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,178.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 3c | 1,276$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf896…e42abacked No | 4c | 1,262$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 44c | 1,050$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.23 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 31c | 905.27$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.9 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 55c | 768.31$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.9 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 10c | 507$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 53c | 450$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 40c | 324.71$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.54 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 8c | 244$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes | 57c | 201.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | +7.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked No | 42c | 174.68$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…4229backed Yes | 68c | 146.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 55c | 140.07$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed Yes | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 10c | 126.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…c623backed No | 45c | 120$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 41c | 104.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa78f…135cbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c1…d9febacked No | 49c | 97.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 11c | 92.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 88 | 39.8%35 W · 53 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +141.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…c165backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a27…45babacked No | 40c | 64.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 30c | 46.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 62c | 42.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 62cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 49c | 39.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0107…6a95backed No | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa6…1162backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed No | 29c | 36.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ec…65c4backed No | 61c | 32.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 43c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7963…5c7bbacked No | 54c | 27.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe30f…1d4abacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef45…666fbacked No | 51c | 23.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Thank you" 7+ times during announcement today?this page
- Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "China" or "President Xi" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Nuclear" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Radical Left" 3+ times during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Russia" or "Putin" during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Shutdown" or "Shut down" during announcement today?No won
- Will Trump say "Tomahawk" or "Patriot" during announcement today?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Venezuela" during announcement today?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.