Music · resolved market
Sabrina Carpenter's 'Man's Best Friend' >375k first week sales?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66c3fa358149434e978459ee052ddf64976c09b1b0272d0c1f3c2863d6baad99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 47c | 2,478$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.4 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 43c | 1,034$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 41c | 385$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.52 | 149 | 38.9%58 W · 91 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 40c | 341.33$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.65 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 33c | 274.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.24 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 39c | 194.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 57c | 188$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.84 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 49c | 103.18$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 19c | 80.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 52c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 61cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9c…ee7dbacked No | 53c | 71.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 58c | 59.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x862c…9d40backed Yes | 39c | 53.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…3561backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…e623backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3273…4d14backed No | 36c | 45.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 43c | 44.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked Yes | 54c | 43.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 42c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2553…3dc5backed No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc9…1b56backed No | 64c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…ea7bbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed No | 75c | 20.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9669…5e05backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…5aa2backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3c…4127backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6418…f2d8backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 18.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 226 | 40.3%91 W · 135 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.