World Politics · resolved market
Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3089e7202b5ab1617977d27926bf8be6d92d829f588bc38bf41ea0625dbc7702
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $312,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $312,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4976…d25cbacked Yes | 20c | 35,739$7,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,449.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d83…4888backed Yes | 25c | 19,292$4,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,496.19 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…6638backed Yes | 22c | 14,878$3,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,617.75 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 5c | 9,213$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,789.28 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -5.6wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked Yes | 65c | 8,910$5,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.02 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 7,200$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a19…0762backed Yes | 18c | 6,515$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,331.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 76c | 5,990$4,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,549.83 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 8c | 5,168$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,773.42 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 55c | 5,053$2,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,278.38 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 80c | 3,155$2,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,513.13 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 24c | 2,746$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.91 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 44c | 2,122$934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$933.69 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 59c | 1,760$1,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.43 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 1,500$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.1 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 65c | 1,323$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.15 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 77c | 1,250$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 26c | 1,050$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.29 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa7…3d98backed No | 1c | 1,030$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 57c | 1,004$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05fc…f78ebacked Yes | 4c | 917$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.05 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x468a…8ecbbacked Yes | 4c | 707.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +533%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 683.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.66 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 6c | 600.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.27 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 51c | 593.76$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.17 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 576.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.34 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…bd3dbacked Yes | 4c | 576$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +430.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 77c | 517.55$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.98 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes | 18c | 516.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 478.41$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.98 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 54c | 446.76$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…35b5backed Yes | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…27d1backed Yes | 55c | 430.26$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 77c | 342.97$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 41c | 247.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.79 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 76c | 150$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2173…7b17backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 12c | 131.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 56c | 125.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 109.19$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 47c | 96.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce9…8ce7backed Yes | 56c | 85.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab3…c667backed Yes | 56c | 80.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +216.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked No | 19c | 62.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7228…0154backed No | 52c | 35.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf347…c3b5backed No | 57c | 29.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c64…ff90backed Yes | 59c | 28.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +47%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…feb0backed No | 40c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…4570backed Yes | 58c | 22.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08d8…cad6backed Yes | 63c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 56c | 21.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…c4c1backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 66cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?this page
- Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
- Will Quiroga and Rodríguez advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
- Will Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.