World Politics · resolved market
Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43bd83d5912f6a5f7611cbc1d23460c25eb05100ed4a27e7145aba9c1f30e696
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $417,503
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $397,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $417,503 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 10c | 57,630$6,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,627.96 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 14c | 47,136$6,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,674.97 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 18c | 17,574$3,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,482.56 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked No | 13c | 13,287$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,518.98 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…a1b6backed Yes | 47c | 9,385$4,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,369.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 12c | 8,879$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,788.41 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked No | 12c | 8,000$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,033.38 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 29c | 5,918$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,189.49 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…7d67backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 11c | 3,573$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.98 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 12c | 3,385$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,976.4 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 12c | 3,217$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,831.09 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 2,300$1,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,572.34 | 553 | 34.5%191 W · 362 L | -38.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…98f5backed Yes | 75c | 1,612$1,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,212.09 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 33c | 1,610$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.75 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 34c | 1,509$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.92 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 1,231$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.72 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068 | 247 | 36.8%91 W · 156 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 79c | 1,120$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.63 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked No | 14c | 999.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.98 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 20c | 900$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 55c | 896$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.96 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f866backed Yes | 68c | 790.23$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.45 | 78 | 28.2%22 W · 56 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 12c | 716.69$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.69 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 12c | 666$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 14c | 570.52$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes | 11c | 470.74$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 12c | 468$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.4 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 15c | 467$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.27 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 14c | 420.5$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.5 | 450 | 21.1%95 W · 355 L | -21.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 30c | 419.99$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.18 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 36c | 415.73$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.77 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 39c | 400$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 304 | 33.6%102 W · 202 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…8c94backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 11c | 369$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.02 | 894 | 48.3%432 W · 462 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed No | 47c | 352.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.8 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 13c | 329.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.71 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 14c | 320$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.57 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c19…17febacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 271$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.7 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 54c | 247.49$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 74c | 237$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 14c | 221.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.99 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…a17ebacked No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked No | 11c | 200$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed No | 24c | 188.43$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 140.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.39 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 240 | 21.3%51 W · 189 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed No | 26c | 75.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 15c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…27d1backed No | 68c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2173…7b17backed No | 27c | 51.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227e…00b9backed Yes | 78c | 39.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…0485backed No | 29c | 35.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5af1…d028backed No | 29c | 35.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…8086backed Yes | 76c | 32.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85a7…fb77backed Yes | 76c | 29.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?this page
- Will Quiroga and Rodríguez advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
- Will Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
- Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.