World Politics · resolved market
Will Quiroga and Rodríguez advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1521b890d0d7ee4a799b383ac1c2871c8a8438b75eb8cac7959b4654c9fbb26a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcfa7…3d98backed Yes | 1c | 30,111$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked Yes | 6c | 5,939$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.57 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,473$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.92 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.21per pick | 21cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 5,065$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 5c | 4,485$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.26 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 3c | 2,686$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b6…342bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,441$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.85 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…8956backed Yes | 10c | 971.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 872.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c69…9e30backed Yes | 9c | 833$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468a…8ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 405.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +533%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 397.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Yes | 5c | 347.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 7c | 342.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 270$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 5c | 247.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81bb…a17ebacked Yes | 7c | 175.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 20cpaid | +115.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1b…9a2dbacked Yes | 6c | 168.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.3wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +168.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 13c | 150.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 140.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb950…4dd4backed Yes | 11c | 126.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Quiroga and Rodríguez advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?this page
- Will Medina and Quiroga advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
- Will Rodríguez and Medina advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?No won
- Will another pairing advance to the Bolivian presidential runoff?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.