Movies · resolved market
Will 'Wicked: For Good – The Soundtrack' debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x475b7a9fed93823e1c3975907f49c7901c914605065c9f37129948b2d3c3d958
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…2a37backed Yes | 35c | 14,700$5,145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,145 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f1…0828backed No | 65c | 14,700$9,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,145 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0952…a44bbacked No | 72c | 737.27$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…a437backed Yes | 18c | 576.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 38c | 436.34$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 19c | 354.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.47 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8957…e18abacked Yes | 11c | 213.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 201.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 1,415 | 8%113 W · 1,302 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43c4…ea38backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 15c | 134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…585abacked Yes | 36c | 119.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 75c | 114.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 148 | 27.7%41 W · 107 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab9…fd27backed No | 67c | 53.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…1d12backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 46.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,223 | 17.8%218 W · 1,005 L | -125.3wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…7154backed Yes | 28c | 44.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f05…cd94backed Yes | 50c | 40.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 50c | 36.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 78c | 31.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 77c | 31.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fc…5382backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b6…4068backed No | 70c | 16.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.