Earnings · resolved market
Will State Street (STT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cf7d752a5ab03ebb18d46d3924a652dfa6b6d63c03cc2367444fcad1a3fad7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 18c | 3,206$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.2 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…f73dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,163$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 12c | 999.64$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.38 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 80c | 693.79$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.85 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 77c | 400.54$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 78c | 376.37$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0cd…45abbacked No | 13c | 299.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…f190backed Yes | 77c | 277.09$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 17c | 265.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 232.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 78c | 219.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…ea33backed No | 19c | 208.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 22c | 155$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 57 | 19.3%11 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 21c | 130$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b61…a567backed No | 16c | 128.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 108.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09f2…f720backed No | 13c | 104.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c1…f6bebacked No | 19c | 101.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 77c | 81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 21c | 77.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…1e6cbacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde35…0239backed No | 27c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…e354backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.