Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x268ad0580111d2029e44b7cbc6ab0675eccf65da500e4c61931783e037cd2468
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,384 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 5c | 25,002$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 2c | 6,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfa…f779backed No | 6c | 2,432$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 65c | 558.36$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed No | 5c | 370$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…c203backed No | 35c | 174.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 20c | 113.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 53cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 34c | 90.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…6be0backed Yes | 29c | 81.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.94 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 41.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 31c | 36.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…48cabacked No | 68c | 23.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…4e21backed Yes | 78c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?this page
- Will Alphabet (GOOGL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?No won
- Will Meta Platforms (META) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?No won
- Will Tesla (TSLA) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.