Macro Indicators · resolved market
US fertility rate up in Q3 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x914890a19f3292897a948f2ae0d227d4cdb8474d775dc9633fac35d092f683f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 8c | 2,660$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…ea1dbacked No | 47c | 360$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…4744backed Yes | 37c | 345$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 33c | 310.44$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 25c | 287.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.98 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…00ddbacked No | 75c | 259.56$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Yes | 9c | 177.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8962…4978backed Yes | 62c | 161.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 62c | 150.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed No | 64c | 139.06$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 91.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…718dbacked Yes | 58c | 79.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 55c | 70.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…b443backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…b3ffbacked Yes | 24c | 58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 51c | 53.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 49 | 8.2%4 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 27c | 46.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 39c | 45.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…1c56backed No | 53c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a2…b146backed No | 76c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed No | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd7…d41bbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…5016backed Yes | 58c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…3385backed No | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…39ecbacked No | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c0…3443backed No | 49c | 28.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce5…bfb7backed No | 76c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf01…ccb3backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…2f77backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…7959backed No | 77c | 19.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b2…bb3bbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb932…5ab6backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa454…daafbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8baa…7781backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.