TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$59,091
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,597

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,091 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd49b…bdf9backed No13c4,435$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.535133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed No13c4,315$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.6211522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No20c1,766$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.6633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No23c1,480$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.1433421.9%73 W · 261 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7131…b3a6backed Yes71c1,153$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.822272.7%16 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick70cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b4…a38abacked No2c1,083$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No14c1,063$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.426141%25 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.10per pick31cpaid-19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x09fe…76eebacked Yes42c991.06$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.347429.7%22 W · 52 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-41.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes43c720.99$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.5619643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2e11…8024backed Yes66c705.57$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a8…f658backed Yes66c687$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.58742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd40d…b2fabacked No34c659$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+51.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed No12c633.16$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.911717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked No12c600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid-11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed Yes66c568$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.121241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-41.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No14c550.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9810739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes52c513.28$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.9616544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No14c502.48$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.85147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-76.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No10c456$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.613625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed No34c445$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.3742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No56c323.34$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0220542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No48c314.58$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6221155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes42c300$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1745750.9%29 W · 28 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbe…19b2backed Yes69c290.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.76862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes36c288.7$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.8822833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed No6c265.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81c1…e164backed Yes40c250$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1507100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+52.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d8d…71eebacked Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158550.6%43 W · 42 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa18…7693backed No34c242$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.281145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafb1…0329backed No57c237.76$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.523860.5%23 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed Yes67c229$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.933070%21 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7b98…5cfabacked No33c220.45$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.712516%4 W · 21 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-72.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8296…e9cbbacked Yes53c208.85$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.85825%2 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid+37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c6…b50bbacked No71c208$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.681560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No25c204.81$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8316020.6%33 W · 127 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268234.1%28 W · 54 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35d7…026fbacked Yes71c184.96$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.082343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+51.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed No29c180.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.27324.7%18 W · 55 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No17c168.64$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.572657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No37c167.58$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.4524831%77 W · 171 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No59c160$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5624861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No10c155.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.169147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No13c150$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa99b…1211backed No11c140.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.22837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes60c139.76$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0534333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4934…6d71backed Yes59c137.52$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.52580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3350…9588backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No16c128.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.895255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes52c126.9$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.622848.7%111 W · 117 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No20c113.97$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5944935.2%158 W · 291 L-37.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe24…10fbbacked No61c109.04$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick68cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfd72…6cc4backed No58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582470.8%17 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f70…312bbacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410622.6%24 W · 82 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No50c97.05$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.533275%24 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No63c93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.257852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes37c93$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.257843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes66c91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.94944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes44c86.61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.27533.3%25 W · 50 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No41c84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.444957.1%28 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes41c80.84$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.727524%18 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9048…2759backed Yes35c71.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.081369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+38.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc77b…a526backed No20c63.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.392326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-35.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes50c61.72$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.695950.8%30 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No32c61.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.491618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaad1…d674backed No35c57.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe097…8e27backed Yes62c54.74$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72fc…2ecfbacked No58c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa0…ee01backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick34cpaid-63.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8db0…28ddbacked No57c50$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58fe…dc22backed Yes40c49.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.691520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes35c48.53$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3349411.5%57 W · 437 L-17.4wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8221…22bcbacked Yes73c47.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No25c45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2515431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No54c44.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.231526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.1wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-57.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed No57c42.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8418041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes42c42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.3616632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.618026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed No48c40$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.22236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0306…a81ebacked No58c33.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.191145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No44c32.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4534129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.53537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x02b3…77b6backed No46c28.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141625%4 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-47.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes44c25.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.012254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No51c24.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7366914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x76f5…a0c4backed Yes51c24.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed Yes48c23.46$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.23663.9%23 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No61c22.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5512150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x67c3…b261backed Yes76c21.17$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.08875%6 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b5…326dbacked Yes51c19.61$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7740…cbcdbacked No54c19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.171145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…045fbacked No67c14.96$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.