Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b93cd399737eaebdcb222c2978cc2595625d41fbfe34666b215c4e53c3cf082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,328
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 21c | 3,155$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.02 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 12c | 1,596$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,510$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…f788backed Yes | 14c | 1,357$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,107$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 13c | 1,015$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.19 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 12c | 619.05$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 14c | 480.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c7…a31bbacked Yes | 27c | 452.42$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 34c | 400.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 62c | 293.19$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.29 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 21c | 254.1$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 12c | 235$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…aaaebacked Yes | 16c | 230$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 196.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 150.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 41c | 127$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 125.44$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 11c | 119.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 23c | 102.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 23c | 99.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 67.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 60c | 54.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…ecf3backed Yes | 38c | 52.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…41eebacked Yes | 29c | 51.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed Yes | 46c | 49.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fc80backed Yes | 41c | 39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 72c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 74c | 22.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 21.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 95 | 78.9%75 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 17.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ed Diehl win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?this page
- Will Chael Sonnen win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?Yes won
- Will Danielle Bethell win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Kyle Duyck win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?No won
- Will Robert Neuman win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.