Space · resolved market
Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ef98fda6da3dd6e5e9510c2aef5ee592349baaa6ac1e545393d23e42a1937ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91a4…2a56backed Yes | 13c | 1,086$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 632.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda5…355cbacked Yes | 6c | 590.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875d…acf2backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 8c | 206.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 199.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb0…4316backed Yes | 55c | 181.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 11c | 180.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…62cebacked Yes | 21c | 156.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 14c | 142.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 50c | 140.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 45c | 110.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…53d6backed Yes | 48c | 104.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 24c | 104.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…24aabacked Yes | 61c | 79.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e46…24debacked Yes | 44c | 63.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 60c | 62.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9749backed No | 51c | 61.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f34…c75bbacked Yes | 59c | 53.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67fc…8048backed Yes | 50c | 38.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cd…3884backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…c567backed Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…43aabacked Yes | 45c | 26.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX have exactly 11 launches in January?this page
- Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?Yes won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 10 launches in January?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 8 launches in January?No won
- Will SpaceX have exactly 9 launches in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.