Movies · resolved market
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ccc3caeb4fcce8eb78156a6b7b9954c702cc3d95f12ac0d91e2536c7ba32189
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked No | 27c | 4,894$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300.9 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…93eebacked Yes | 79c | 3,889$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.05 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +22.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 70c | 3,058$2,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.35 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed No | 28c | 2,893$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 16c | 2,388$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 66c | 2,154$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.56 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 19c | 2,027$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.96 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 1,572$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66c…4ab1backed No | 1c | 1,411$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 79c | 1,262$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.02 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 69c | 1,249$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.04 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 8c | 816.69$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.42 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 23c | 598.94$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.24 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ac…bc7dbacked No | 15c | 526.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 47c | 485.11$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.45 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…4c7dbacked No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 16c | 396.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…f846backed Yes | 78c | 340$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc346…345fbacked No | 13c | 330.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 9c | 306.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked No | 12c | 293.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 283.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 224$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 15c | 220.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed No | 47c | 213.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed No | 11c | 166.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 22c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 33c | 96.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.81 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07eb…8192backed No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 77c | 70.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1d…7b71backed No | 18c | 66.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…6accbacked Yes | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 62c | 53.87$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c38…fd63backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 45c | 48.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 166 | 14.5%24 W · 142 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 55c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…732dbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 80c | 22.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Yes | 80c | 21.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…3652backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x40c2…b2fcbacked Yes | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f3…be43backed Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?this page
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.