Movies · resolved market
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x696798a88f58f16647d3a9e3568c39b99b5968af2d5b5a85d317331b2356a300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,358$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.79 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 19c | 4,254$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.35 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…9b10backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…8336backed Yes | 21c | 1,435$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 80c | 1,433$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.6 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,409$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.36 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,193$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 2c | 999.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 23c | 876.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b45…d5f4backed Yes | 12c | 855.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 25c | 843.71$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5502…d440backed Yes | 17c | 742.11$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed Yes | 18c | 501.25$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 18c | 473.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.68 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1360…4509backed Yes | 17c | 378.19$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 350.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 317.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab4…404abacked Yes | 4c | 297.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116f…9210backed Yes | 20c | 268$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 101 | 23.8%24 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f7…e73bbacked Yes | 9c | 256.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 20c | 161$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe19d…334dbacked Yes | 13c | 154.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Yes | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -5.9wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…b17abacked Yes | 17c | 138.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7e…f846backed Yes | 18c | 132.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…8cdabacked Yes | 23c | 129.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 110.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…c826backed Yes | 20c | 109.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 25c | 105.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 77c | 83.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 76c | 62.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 41c | 60.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 77c | 57.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…eeb1backed Yes | 22c | 53.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa010…e8dcbacked Yes | 44c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…fd8dbacked No | 56c | 49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?this page
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m?No won
- Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 39m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.