China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2033558284e4b624e3d1f571df3ec9ff42f6647c1e7e495dd63a23a83603651e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,880
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,453$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,127$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 11c | 1,100$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…9daabacked Yes | 13c | 794.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 721.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 616.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3051…55ecbacked Yes | 5c | 408.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3385…f8dcbacked Yes | 3c | 382.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…b47dbacked Yes | 6c | 264.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 230.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb246…fcecbacked No | 76c | 202.15$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06aa…52d9backed Yes | 11c | 173.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 121.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…1c6cbacked No | 77c | 85.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 36c | 65.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 30cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked Yes | 31c | 48.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…099cbacked No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3ce8backed No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +227.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by June 30?this page
- Will Jia Yueting enter mainland China by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.