Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x576b5f5f1ec1fb585d195f3310148efabbd11ec45679b7835228fb3431c648a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 69c | 1,562$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.08 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 19c | 707.89$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 12c | 655.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.38 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…02d6backed Yes | 25c | 647.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf42…d492backed Yes | 12c | 530.24$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 40c | 403.13$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…f66fbacked Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 293.89$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed Yes | 23c | 249.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…8079backed Yes | 24c | 242.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852f…3aaebacked Yes | 28c | 240$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 225.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 201.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…377ebacked Yes | 40c | 196$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47a…a102backed Yes | 34c | 189.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 17c | 188.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 156.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 21c | 147.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +9.0wins | +0.34per pick | 23cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…a429backed Yes | 36c | 146.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 10c | 145.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf278…a69dbacked Yes | 36c | 133.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 14c | 132.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…1e16backed Yes | 10c | 130.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 128.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 14c | 125.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 123.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 19c | 95.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 94.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 67.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…398ebacked Yes | 24c | 46.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2177…3fb4backed No | 80c | 46.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 63c | 33.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 69c | 29.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 63c | 28.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?this page
- Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?No won
- Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?Yes won
- Will Taylor Darling be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.