Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd426b5e37b1adeb4a30ed0ece09fe70b5ca0aee2392a43c97b18af26b3fec447
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 5c | 1,571$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 160 | 20.6%33 W · 127 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 62c | 885.99$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.19 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 5c | 553.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 4c | 552.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 147 | 29.9%44 W · 103 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 12c | 418.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 78c | 385.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 11c | 345.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 52c | 340.24$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.13 | 196 | 43.4%85 W · 111 L | +15.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 5c | 283.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 25c | 260.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 211 | 55.9%118 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 60c | 201.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 23c | 175.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.47 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 13c | 165$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 158.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 78c | 144.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +7.1wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 134.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.9 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…a429backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 60c | 102.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 47c | 88.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.36 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 71c | 85.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 14c | 80.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 44c | 79.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 19c | 79.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 136 | 25.7%35 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 76.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 17c | 64.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 36c | 57.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Yes | 66c | 55.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 35c | 52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea6…180dbacked No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 43c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 70c | 28.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 55c | 21.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94c3…140cbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?this page
- Will Gian Jones be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?No won
- Will Nicholas Sciretta be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?No won
- Will Taylor Darling be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.