Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35c125df3823bc0747b63266bee196e8c79be9431bd524f31041c1d36a01dc2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.89 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 17c | 1,238$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.2 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…c4d7backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…f596backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 904.86$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.85 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 769.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed No | 79c | 643.52$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.96 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 39c | 478.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.22 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 41c | 430.81$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.44 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 9c | 357.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.05 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 24c | 350.51$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.52 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 17c | 247.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.88 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 53c | 210$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 21c | 192.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.8 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 40c | 174.74$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.74 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked No | 74c | 172.09$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 163.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…f82abacked Yes | 18c | 150.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.02 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc817…9c93backed Yes | 20c | 94.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.54 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…0847backed Yes | 12c | 93.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +144.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 74.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 36c | 68.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…cf27backed Yes | 46c | 67.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 34c | 60.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 21c | 56.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 30c | 54.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 46c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 42c | 29.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 74c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…11b2backed Yes | 45c | 23.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd60…bbd9backed Yes | 49c | 23.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…7457backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4838…30f0backed Yes | 58c | 17.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 43°F or below on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.