Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2b635f5e13f3a3eb2b7f52b961f704ccdd6dece4f2c373ce985ab8719cf3afc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,429
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,429 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdab3…3bf5backed Yes | 61c | 1,058$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.29 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 611.06$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.52 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 55c | 207.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.71 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3605…7a79backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…434fbacked No | 75c | 157.33$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f3…3595backed No | 75c | 134$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 13c | 130$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 29c | 128.76$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 59c | 124.14$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf20…ddb8backed Yes | 34c | 99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…7b9cbacked Yes | 74c | 83.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 71.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 63c | 69.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 31c | 66.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 63c | 59.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 56.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 71c | 55.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 75c | 53.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd833…ba96backed No | 75c | 50.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 50.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 79c | 49.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 30c | 48.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…8da9backed Yes | 35c | 42.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd64c…2c13backed No | 54c | 40.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab0a…36b1backed Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 64c | 35.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…3336backed Yes | 32c | 35.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…30d4backed Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a00…4864backed No | 73c | 32.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x776b…1611backed No | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bff…bb6fbacked Yes | 71c | 28.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e7…1d7bbacked Yes | 66c | 25.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dda…b441backed No | 74c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x049f…c09ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24cb…76fbbacked No | 63c | 19.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 43°F or below on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 54°F or higher on February 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 44-45°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.