Poker · resolved market
Will LockedIn Poker reach his $100k goal by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06f6713565da91df90901a13c70b626b57bc732e2b3bf5a06d0707e00d4b8fce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,941
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed Yes | 56c | 353.26$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 65c | 245.48$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 166.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.37 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…8908backed No | 34c | 146.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 40c | 144.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +148.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 62c | 139.01$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.19 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 19c | 85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…7607backed No | 38c | 36.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec00…f896backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…7472backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f4…0d1fbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.