Weather · resolved market
Another 5.0 or above earthquake in Greece by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e4daf2ca1b28ba3d2e0ea3be60b46de7fce98a841d973a5dde1c9fa5950c3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e57…cfd5backed Yes | 26c | 3,896$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 11c | 3,513$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.85 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 76c | 2,316$1,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.69 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…c218backed Yes | 24c | 2,000$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…d9c1backed Yes | 19c | 1,979$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.69 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +11.8wins | +0.15per pick | 29cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 661.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 35c | 462.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.41 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…2a75backed Yes | 20c | 405.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 16c | 399.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…7935backed Yes | 15c | 365$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 19c | 352.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 20c | 279.23$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.85 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f3…4bcebacked No | 80c | 237$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 46c | 236.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce3f…67c9backed Yes | 23c | 188$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 23c | 178.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 18c | 101.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 27cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2a…5ccebacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…2e88backed Yes | 19c | 85.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 21c | 70.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 80c | 63.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 56cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…db84backed No | 77c | 33.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…84a0backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.