World Politics · resolved market
Trump renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" in 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x765ec58fd287409082b4438ca7155d78a1734c1abfba7c0599eac5c7b9ace8cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc8c…273fbacked No | 1c | 12,381$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187f…5feebacked Yes | 43c | 5,728$2,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,265.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…4dafbacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1e…5e2dbacked No | 78c | 4,349$3,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,371.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 77c | 3,083$2,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,371.61 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,637$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.82 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94c4…43cabacked Yes | 23c | 2,500$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,924.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 11c | 2,282$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.27 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64df…ab80backed Yes | 59c | 1,923$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0f…9556backed Yes | 70c | 1,492$1,049 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 27c | 1,483$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.42 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 1,332$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 170 | 1.8%3 W · 167 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 32c | 946$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…9844backed No | 3c | 723$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +74.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 25c | 515.46$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +120%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…be4dbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 32cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3d…8554backed Yes | 75c | 453.04$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.26 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 134 | 43.3%58 W · 76 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 76c | 300$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 44cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 21c | 286$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.94 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcf…8907backed Yes | 23c | 244.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +326.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 26c | 233.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.98 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 24c | 179.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 22c | 140$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No | 74c | 113.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…293ebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38f…bf78backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…3cd8backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 178 | 30.3%54 W · 124 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 89.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 995 | 17.2%171 W · 824 L | -149.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 83.33$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 52c | 81.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -65%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 110 | 42.7%47 W · 63 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 22c | 77.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 17c | 68.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 29c | 61.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7875…0dfbbacked Yes | 22c | 53.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc205…eec2backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4702backed No | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e25…afd6backed No | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb1…2630backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1583…bddebacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 29c | 35.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 381 | 23.9%91 W · 290 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed No | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.