Earnings · resolved market
Will Kohls (KSS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e30a3172bad31b90f0bab0a06d389a9aab01d0aeb9702e0215eddde33478685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 5,648$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 73c | 679.29$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.42 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a7…9f02backed Yes | 79c | 581.75$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 38c | 526.71$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 30c | 438.81$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb102…c73dbacked No | 24c | 429.85$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.3 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 299.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 73c | 221.92$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.09 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa31…5cc1backed No | 23c | 175.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 19c | 145.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 14c | 137.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e0…a793backed Yes | 80c | 125.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…4d03backed No | 25c | 120.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee65…4f6abacked Yes | 79c | 119.74$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 72c | 100.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 47 | 74.5%35 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 74cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…1331backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…633fbacked No | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3b6bbacked No | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 81.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 118 | 31.4%37 W · 81 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…22c4backed No | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf195…43efbacked No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked No | 39c | 66.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038f…4535backed No | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed No | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 73c | 52.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c60…9c5ebacked Yes | 41c | 50.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…064fbacked Yes | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…7b8fbacked No | 27c | 45.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a5…d72bbacked No | 23c | 44.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d7…4d00backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 57.3%122 W · 91 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…52b0backed Yes | 79c | 38.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf957…ea8abacked Yes | 80c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…3658backed Yes | 76c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…84e3backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.