Movies · resolved market
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e61785bf423d21cad2f38dcef2ae63e94e383e2408e49500be20fe6b32b7fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $100,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $100,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3779…0f80backed No | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7de…b802backed Yes | 79c | 5,268$4,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.55 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 15c | 3,035$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.74 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 46c | 2,871$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.36 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 17c | 2,650$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.69 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 55c | 2,203$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 49c | 2,042$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.64 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 48c | 1,901$908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.35 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 79c | 1,608$1,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.64 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 37c | 1,492$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.54 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked No | 21c | 1,431$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.12 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 19c | 1,328$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 56c | 1,205$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.97 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 63c | 1,188$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.13 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 45c | 1,171$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.88 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,027$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.38 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.95 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 840.05$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.41 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No | 71c | 679.24$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.94 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 27c | 500$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.16 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 57c | 483.66$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.43 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 53c | 452.94$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.76 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 53c | 419.57$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.89 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 411.67$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 44c | 400$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.2 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked Yes | 80c | 355.98$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed Yes | 79c | 326.01$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.36 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed No | 46c | 325$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.87 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa93c…17b2backed Yes | 62c | 324.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.19 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 44c | 311$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.17 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 20c | 285.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 56c | 250$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.75 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0070…9f3cbacked No | 62c | 242.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 51c | 242.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.62 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 28c | 222.04$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.94 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…08e5backed No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 28c | 211.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.79 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…396fbacked No | 12c | 203$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked No | 20c | 197.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…994cbacked Yes | 28c | 154$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4548…025bbacked No | 55c | 147.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0538…40f3backed Yes | 14c | 145.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +602.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 65c | 139$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 70c | 132$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe230…30c7backed No | 73c | 123$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 48c | 110.05$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3f…8535backed Yes | 28c | 102$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 28cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ee…9d12backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed No | 28c | 99.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 20c | 97.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 65c | 95.92$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 11c | 91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…7918backed No | 68c | 90$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe91b…eaabbacked No | 57c | 87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 46c | 80.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed No | 41c | 80.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…5c6bbacked Yes | 34c | 80$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed No | 38c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked No | 15c | 75.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 53c | 73.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…5672backed No | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 65c | 61.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…98f5backed No | 73c | 52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e06…edf3backed No | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6661…277dbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…7924backed Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…b50abacked Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14d8…5af0backed Yes | 45c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde98…8cd3backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe37c…33d7backed Yes | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…d980backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4012…ada5backed No | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…b07ebacked No | 39c | 31.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…85d4backed No | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…a916backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…6529backed No | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 64c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd899…8021backed No | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6a…da2abacked No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8472…e67dbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6b5…de9fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab8…e673backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44b…e249backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…d819backed No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…25c9backed Yes | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?this page
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15-18m?No won
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $18-21m?No won
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.