Movies · resolved market
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $18-21m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9415cfb6c63ed4119d13e6398cde4d3a7265176d85cd0cc40b70bed4e7d8f6d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3779…0f80backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 9,402$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.86 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,802$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.03 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,525$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,662$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.79 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…4bd0backed Yes | 0c | 3,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…8309backed Yes | 4c | 2,719$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 2c | 2,437$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 2,121$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,548$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…3506backed Yes | 1c | 1,033$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 968.87$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.61 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ab…939cbacked Yes | 2c | 929.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 9c | 624.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 3c | 437.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 9c | 435$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 5c | 321$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed Yes | 7c | 291.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 274.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 4c | 241.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 8c | 182.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 150.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 63c | 148.11$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 67c | 130$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 24c | 120.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 33c | 120$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $18-21m?this page
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15-18m?No won
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?Yes won
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.