Movies · resolved market
Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15-18m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadd687f7535a7130a258a556d2eff5e9ca604ef1c588cd221a8844abeef47208
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6acb…baefbacked Yes | 9c | 4,490$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.55 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 3,280$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.3 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…4bd0backed Yes | 2c | 1,991$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 59c | 1,925$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.57 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,698$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 1,214$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.75 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 28c | 1,149$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.73 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 12c | 921.71$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 21c | 731.3$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.24 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4da…5e37backed Yes | 7c | 724.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x337f…3506backed Yes | 9c | 657.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 45c | 499.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.03 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 40c | 471.37$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.02 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 63c | 450.17$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c9…8beabacked Yes | 5c | 449.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 66c | 400.33$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.24 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…61ebbacked Yes | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 15c | 317$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 59c | 311$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.09 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de6…f29cbacked Yes | 43c | 275$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x952c…d358backed No | 32c | 231$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 10c | 210$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebf…bc43backed No | 58c | 187$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 34c | 178.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.86 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 73c | 178.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…1ca9backed Yes | 42c | 176$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 71c | 170$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…ba55backed Yes | 49c | 164$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 159.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 152$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b1…2509backed No | 51c | 146$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 75c | 133.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fe…7c0fbacked Yes | 68c | 131$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e1…072cbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed Yes | 35c | 91.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf801…e94fbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 46c | 72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 68c | 59.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088c…2276backed Yes | 68c | 59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979b…300fbacked No | 33c | 58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edd…8363backed No | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…c8f0backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…8416backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b9…ba31backed No | 52c | 49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…7705backed Yes | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 63c | 42.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f5…b73bbacked Yes | 68c | 41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…d514backed Yes | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a25…0deebacked No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…f66abacked Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975a…553cbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf062…a6e2backed No | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…c412backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c05…a2adbacked Yes | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8253…b7f0backed No | 33c | 31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…4757backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…30afbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…1f72backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd708…339bbacked Yes | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f98…4cc0backed Yes | 42c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a2d0backed Yes | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0532…0b95backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa47d…67edbacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fae…2100backed No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…4990backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…2d34backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $15-18m?this page
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $18-21m?No won
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than $15m?Yes won
- Will "Paddington in Peru" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $21m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.