China Taiwan · resolved market
US-China trade deal in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f91477e922e33aa5a6b15ed24bbb42d9bd17662c23674f133d3b200372ff7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 7,787$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0856…b042backed No | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 21c | 2,921$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 11c | 2,721$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.27 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 6c | 2,411$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.17 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 16c | 1,883$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4096…1740backed No | 23c | 1,100$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,080$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 20c | 994.09$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…aa3ebacked No | 9c | 912$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…7b2ebacked Yes | 78c | 743.49$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 29c | 733.99$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 14c | 673$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 71c | 618$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 28c | 584$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 20c | 553.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d9…12dbbacked Yes | 79c | 512.07$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab3…00fdbacked No | 23c | 443.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed No | 4c | 404$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 79c | 374.63$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 368.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 9c | 298.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 78c | 265$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…edbfbacked No | 21c | 263.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…8338backed Yes | 80c | 251.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…65f1backed No | 9c | 220.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 212.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 73c | 146.25$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 79c | 127.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…8d00backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 11c | 115.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…dd29backed No | 14c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…e788backed Yes | 73c | 70.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd15b…77abbacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a6…86a7backed No | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95a5…2edfbacked Yes | 73c | 48.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a3…04debacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296d…ed4dbacked Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.