NFL · resolved market
Will Jaxson Dart get drafted in the First Round?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfed60696e2e3b8038467e9c08f197fbb29523171f2e2ee496003403032c8a4ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6337…1ebbbacked No | 29c | 1,138$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.17 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 60c | 391.39$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.63 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5faf…27bbbacked Yes | 52c | 353.71$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 35c | 244.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ae…52edbacked Yes | 52c | 229$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 68c | 174.44$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed No | 56c | 169.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 199 | 48.2%96 W · 103 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5498…a5aebacked Yes | 76c | 130.74$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6a…6db6backed Yes | 68c | 106.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc979…4a98backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…b02bbacked Yes | 78c | 89.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 76c | 80.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed Yes | 73c | 70.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 283 | 37.8%107 W · 176 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 39c | 63.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 47c | 54.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb907…63f2backed No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 80c | 50.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 62c | 45.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…3ee9backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca3…53cebacked Yes | 77c | 39.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6f…c76cbacked No | 35c | 36.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf4…4c5abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91f…e850backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.