Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4aa1d839e86d5bfaa579d14a6431f8205b67eabfa88e518fdbf00bcc3dec7bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2c3…0e32backed Yes | 29c | 1,942$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked No | 71c | 1,835$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.96 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Yes | 22c | 1,367$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 15c | 1,329$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 1,254$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.17 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 659.59$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.24 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 26c | 637.23$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd502…4d4cbacked No | 74c | 612.84$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.34 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 76c | 563.38$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.21 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 29c | 459$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9d…35f8backed Yes | 17c | 427.27$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc270…1379backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 410.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 76c | 299$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.76 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 10c | 290$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed Yes | 18c | 242.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb86d…3e71backed Yes | 26c | 200$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 27c | 193.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.79 | 225 | 42.7%96 W · 129 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c8…72a6backed Yes | 74c | 190$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…c424backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…2ffabacked Yes | 27c | 150.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002f…6a4ebacked No | 72c | 140$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 77c | 129.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 351 | 54.7%192 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef4…a780backed Yes | 29c | 104.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 23c | 89.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 64cpaid | -43%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked Yes | 23c | 84.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2d…0b7abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.66 | 144 | 35.4%51 W · 93 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 176 | 61.4%108 W · 68 L | -10.2wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 73c | 64.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 76c | 63.83$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -8.0wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -23%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3830…73b7backed Yes | 26c | 58.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x264b…679dbacked Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…b445backed Yes | 41c | 53.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 133 | 30.1%40 W · 93 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…b5dabacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1302…a062backed Yes | 33c | 33.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 76c | 32.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 74c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4032…fcadbacked No | 78c | 14.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 495 | 28.7%142 W · 353 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-30?Yes won
- Will FC Groningen win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.